Crime on the Rise, But Focus In Washington is Elsewhere
While Washington is hyper-focused on President Biden’s “Build Back Better” and “infrastructure” legislation (more on that below), a slow economy, stubborn unemployment and greater levels of pandemic-induced idleness seem to be increasing the level of lawlessness across the country. Major news outlets have reported on this increase, including a rise in organized retail crime (ORC). Still, Washington has done little to address the issue, even though the Biden Administration’s Departments of Justice, Commerce and Homeland Security all have jurisdiction over this persistent – and growing – problem. While Congress and several executive branch agencies have looked into ransomware attacks, manufacturing and supply chain resilience (including a hearing last week by a House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee), Washington is not focused on ORC or loss prevention issues. ISCPO members have the power to raise the level of awareness on this issue and urge federal lawmakers in Washington to take action. Please let us know if you would like any assistance in communicating with your Members of Congress.
But, while the response in Washington has been disappointing, the issue is getting attention at the state level. Illinois recently announced the formation of apublic and private partnership aimed towards combatting ORC. The partnership, called the Organized Retail Crime Task Force, is intended to increase cooperation among online marketplaces, retailers, and law enforcement agencies. Retailers involved include CVS, Walgreens, Home Depot, and Walmart. In addition, last month, San Francisco established the retail crime initiative aimed at reducing organized crime at local stores.
Democrats Remain Stalemated on “Build Back Better” Reconciliation Bill
Congressional Democrats are still negotiating over the cost and scope of the party’s “Build Back Better” (BBB) proposal — President Biden’s massive legislative plan aimed at overhauling major aspects of the economy and society. The House and Senate have each passed a $3.5 Trillion blueprint for the legislation — known officially as a “budget resolution” — financed mostly through higher taxes. But, leadership-led negotiations on the final shape of a bill are ongoing, with the moderate and progressive wings of the Democratic party vying for their positions. This week, President Biden weighed in to indicate that, given these opposing views, it will be best to scale down the package to the range of $1.9 Trillion. His position, and that of many in the smaller moderate wing of the Democratic party, seems to be that it is best to pass “something” rather than nothing to move their agenda forward. Progressives, led largely by Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), are pressing for a more expansive and costly bill.
No Republicans are expected to vote for the bill, regardless of its final shape. So, Democrats plan to use a process known as “budget reconciliation” that will allow them to advance the legislation with a simple majority in the Senate, rather than the super-majority 60 votes that is normally needed to overcome a filibuster. However, there are many rules for reconciliation that require the legislation to have a clear budgetary impact. Thus, many of the Democrats’ favored provisions — like tuition-free community college and some green energy proposals — will probably have to be dropped from the final bill. While Democrats have declared a self-imposed deadline of October 31st for a final agreement, the reality is that there is no hard deadline for when this bill must pass. Rather, it will come to a vote when — and only when — Democratic leadership feels that it has the votes to prevail. So, it is possible that the measure won’t be voted on until December — or perhaps it won’t be voted on at all this year.
Timeline for Vote on “Hard Infrastructure” Legislation Still Up-in-the-Air
Last month, President Biden signed legislation extending surface transportation programs through the end of October. The extension was needed since surface transportation programs would have expired on October 1st — the official beginning of the 2022 fiscal year. Also at play, the bipartisan $1.2 Trillion “hard” infrastructure bill that passed the Senate in August (H.R 3684) has been delayed in the House due to internal debates among Democrats. While it is believed that the bill could pass the House, leadership has bowed to demands of progressive members of its caucus who want to “tie” the infrastructure bill to the larger — and partisan — Build Back Better (BBB) reconciliation plan. In an August letter to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), nine moderate House Democrats asked that a vote on the compromise infrastructure bill come ahead of the massive BBB legislation. Although leadership had promised the moderates a vote by the end of September, that deadline was missed. Now, leadership has promised a vote on the hard infrastructure bill by October 31st, hoping that negotiations on the BBB plan will have progressed sufficiently by that time to permit a vote on both. But, since most of these decisions on timing and substance are still subject to negotiations between the White House and Democratic congressional leadership, there is not a definitive timeline.
Supply Chain Backlogs
Meantime, while the congressional intrigue on the fate of the infrastructure legislation continues, supply chain backlogs are becoming more severe. Reports of empty store shelves and idle cargo containers outside of ports have become commonplace. The crisis has become so serious that President Biden announced in a public statement on October 13th that the Port of Los Angeles had agreed to start processing cargo ships 24 hours a day, seven days a week. He also announced that six major retail and supply chain companies, including UPS and FedEx, would extend their hours to help speed up the movement of consumer goods. While most understand that supply chains and the movement of goods have been hampered by the pandemic, many critics maintain that Biden Administration policies have exacerbated the problem. Both fuel shortages and inflation have increased under this Administration, these critics contend, as have regulations aggravating labor shortages. House Republican leaders sent a letter to President Biden on October 20th expressing many of these concerns. This issue remains of major concern to ISCPO, since cargo and goods that are delayed or idle are more vulnerable to theft and loss.
Remaining Appropriations Measures Unveiled
Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy (D-VT) released a package of nine spending bills this week, setting up negotiations on what many expect to be a final appropriations package by the end of the year. Each year, Congress is supposed to pass 12 different appropriations measures by October 1st — the start of the federal fiscal year — to provide the funding to run government programs and keep federal offices operating. So far, none of the bills have made it to President Biden’s desk for his signature. Instead, a “continuing resolution” (CR) was passed earlier this Fall to fund the government at current levels until December 3rd. Earlier in the year, the House and Senate Appropriations Committees passed several bills, which include priority funding requests from many members of Congress, though none have been enacted into law. As in many years past, a large-scale omnibus spending bill — or a series of smaller “mini-bus” spending bills — could be negotiated and finalized by the end of the year.
President Biden’s Approval Ratings Continue to Drop
In the face of drawn-out intra-party bickering among Democrats, higher inflation, weakness in the economy, and crises abroad, President Biden’s approval is sinking. According to the latest Real Clear Politics polling average, only 42.9% of those polled approve of the job the President is doing, while 51.4% disapprove — a negative spread of 8.5%. This contrasts to his approval rating of over 53% at the beginning of Summer. These low numbers have many Democrats concerned that, unless things reverse course, the party may stand to lose its majorities in Congress during next year’s midterm elections. In addition to the President’s low approval numbers, historical precedent demonstrates that the party in control of the White House usually loses seats in midterm congressional elections. In addition, Democrat anxiety is heightened by the fact that in many states, Republicans control the redistricting process that will probably help them gain seats in the House. So far, 12 House Democrats have opted to not seek re-election next year, further demonstrating concern about the future of Democratic party congressional majorities. While there is a long-time to go between now and the next congressional elections in November of 2022, with razor-thin majorities in both the House and Senate, Democrats clearly have little margin of error.